Should You Buy Now or Wait? July’s Numbers May Surprise You

The July housing numbers are in for Rutherford County, and the story is one of stability with a few promising signals for buyers. Closed sales were almost even with last July, down just 4%, while pending contracts rose 13% — a positive indicator for late-summer activity. Compared to last year, inventory is up 33%, giving us a 3.53 month supply. In several price segments, we’re already operating in a buyer’s market, though prices have stayed relatively stable.

Sales and Inventory Trends
While July’s home sales were pretty much flat compared to last year, month-over-month we saw closings up 10% from June, and contracts were up 9%. So the seasonal numbers show closings tracking similar to last year, but pending sales jumped from June to July for the first time in six years. That’s a good sign as we get into August, a month where we’ve seen a seasonal jump in contracts three of the past four years. 

Mortgage Rates and Market Behavior
To understand buyer activity, it’s important to look back at mortgage rate trends since mid-2022. Rates began climbing in summer 2022 and have since fluctuated between 6.5% and nearly 8% for conventional loans. This up-and-down pattern has had a direct impact on sales volume:

• When rates dip below 7%, contracts tend to rise.

• When rates climb above 7%, activity slows.

As of today, conventional mortgage rates are trending downward again, hovering around 6.65% (30-yr FRM) — the lowest they’ve been in recent months. This decline likely contributed to July's unusual increase in pending sales, as lower rates expand affordability and encourage hesitant buyers to move forward.

The Fed’s Role and What’s Next
While there’s speculation that the Federal Reserve could cut rates this fall, the effect on the 10-year Treasury yield — and by extension, the 30-year mortgage rate — isn’t guaranteed. Historically, though, Fed cuts often lead to some downward movement in mortgage rates.

A Word of Caution for Waiting Buyers
If you’re waiting for rates to drop to 5.5% before purchasing, be aware that such a drop would likely trigger a surge in demand, quickly tightening inventory and driving up home prices. While our current supply is healthier than it was in early 2022 — when inventory fell to an unheard-of 165 homes on the market — it’s still far from abundant.

Key Takeaways
The Rutherford County housing market remains fairly balanced, with neither buyers nor sellers holding a clear advantage. With rates easing and inventory higher than last year, this may be an opportune moment for buyers to make their move — before competition heats up again.

If you’d like a personalized market analysis or help navigating your buying or selling options, our team is here to assist. Call us at 615-867-3020. It would be our pleasure to serve you.